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The five dimensions of the distribution signature: a score is not a probability

riskdump-score

The distribution signature folds funding extremes, open-interest collapse, upper-wick clusters, volume without price progress, and perp-spot divergence into one 0–100 score. What each dimension watches, and why a score never means a probability of falling.

The one-line conclusion: a high dump score means "the distribution signature is strong", not "there is a seventy-something chance it dumps". A score is feature strength, not probability — that distinction is a hard rule of this product.

What the five dimensions watch

The distribution signature (0–100) blends five dimensions. In plain language:

  1. Funding extremes. Funding is the periodic fee longs and shorts pay each other in perpetuals: positive funding means longs pay shorts, i.e. longing is crowded. An extreme print means one side is packed — the cheapest moment for the operator to sell into.
  2. Open-interest collapse. Open interest is the total of contracts still open. When OI suddenly caves after a high-volume top, big money is leaving and the exit liquidity is retail.
  3. Upper-wick clusters. An upper wick is the trace of "pushed up, slapped down". Clusters of them mean a persistent seller is waiting above.
  4. Volume without price progress. Heavy volume with flat price. Volume is turnover; if price cannot rise, supply is absorbing demand — someone is using that liquidity to sell.
  5. Perp-spot divergence. When the perpetual and the spot price disagree (for example perps lead while spot refuses to follow), the rally is mostly leverage, and leverage has no roots.

A score is not a probability

This is the single most important methodology rule in the product:

  • A dump score of 70 means "several dimensions are flashing red at once; the signature is strong".
  • It is not "a 70-something chance of falling". We never write the score as a probability anywhere, and we ask you not to convert it when quoting us.

There are three alert thresholds: 50, 70 and 90. When the score crosses one and holds (still above on the next cycle), the system emits coin.dump_score.crossed; subscribers receive it via Telegram, push, or email.

What happens after a high score

The honest answer: not necessarily an immediate drop. Distribution can run for a long time, and a high-scoring coin can still squeeze higher. The historical record of "what actually happened after high scores" lives entirely on the public scorecard — hit rates, sample sizes and confidence intervals come from the calibration API in real time, and this article hard-codes none of them.

Use the dump score as a risk gauge: when it is high, the risk structure of the coin has changed, and your own position rules take over. Using it as a crash countdown is using it wrong.