Playbook Academy
How the seven-act playbook, the distribution signature, and checkup reports work. Method and methodology only — live numbers stay on the public scorecard, never hard-coded here.
- The Seven-Stage Lifecycle: every contract sits in one act of the playFireFutures places every listed perpetual contract into the same seven-act play: decline, accumulation, shakeout, ignition, markup, distribution, aftermath. What each act means in plain language, and what this lens can and cannot do.basicsstages
- Reading accumulation and shakeout: the two acts before launchAccumulation means someone seems to be quietly buying; shakeout means jumping around to test weak hands. Both are easy to misread as boredom and noise — and both are worth observing. What they look like, how to tell them apart, and where to verify.stagesbasics
- Ignition and dual-track confirmation — and how much it already pumped by thenIgnition is the engine confirming a launch, via a C0 slow-grind track and a C1 violent track. Confirmation is not real-time: the historical median delay is about 11 hours. The rules, the delay, and an important blind spot.ignitionstages
- Markup and distribution: the hottest acts, where cool heads matter mostMarkup means rising; distribution means the operator seems to be selling. These two acts carry the strongest emotions and the heaviest retail losses. What the stages mean, their risk baselines, and why distribution is the hardest to spot.stagesrisk
- The five dimensions of the distribution signature: a score is not a probabilityThe distribution signature folds funding extremes, open-interest collapse, upper-wick clusters, volume without price progress, and perp-spot divergence into one 0–100 score. What each dimension watches, and why a score never means a probability of falling.riskdump-score
- How to read a checkup report: 30 seconds, 3 minutes, 30 minutesA checkup report is built in three layers: the conclusion in 30 seconds, the evidence in 3 minutes, the raw data in 30 minutes. What each layer shows, how grades and risk scores are computed, and the report's methodology limits.checkupbasics
- The system's capability boundaries: ten honesty clauses written into the productThis system is best at recognition, not prediction. Ten capability boundaries from engine research and measurement are written into the product. Here they are, one by one, unvarnished.basicshonesty
- How to verify the scorecard and the proofs: trust hashes, not usEvery number on the scorecard comes from the calibration API in real time; every signal enters a daily Merkle proof batch anchored to Bitcoin. The methodology, the verification steps, and why after-the-fact edits get caught.scorecardhonesty