Ignition and dual-track confirmation — and how much it already pumped by then
Ignition is the engine confirming a launch, via a C0 slow-grind track and a C1 violent track. Confirmation is not real-time: the historical median delay is about 11 hours. The rules, the delay, and an important blind spot.
The one-line conclusion: ignition is not "pumping hard" — it is the engine confirming a launch under dual-track rules. Confirmation lags, and every ignition card must be read together with its "already up by confirmation" field.
The two confirmation tracks
The engine confirms ignition through two tracks, one per price-action style:
- C0 slow-grind track: volume
z-score above 4 and price breaking the 20-day high. In plain terms, thez-score measures how many standard deviations current volume sits above its recent average — "is this volume abnormal?" - C1 violent track: a single-day gain above 20%, volume above five times the usual, and price breaking the 60-day high — all three at once.
Either track fires an ignition, recorded in the public ledger as a coin.ignition.triggered event.
Confirmation lags — and not by a little
Ignition is a confirmation after the fact, not a live shout. In historical measurement, the median lag from the actual launch to engine confirmation is about 11 hours, and by the moment of confirmation price had already risen a median of +27.4%. Both are medians over historical samples, not per-event promises; for current figures, defer to the live public scorecard.
That is why every ignition card carries "already up by confirmation": it tells you how far price had traveled by the time the confirmation arrived. Chasing a confirmation and witnessing the launch itself are two very different trades.
Near-edge: eyes early, engine unconfirmed
Before confirmation there is a warning layer called "near-edge": the coin is approaching ignition conditions but is not confirmed. Near-edge means "eyes early, engine unconfirmed" — it may ignite soon, or never. Its historical record is presented as a multiple of the random base rate, with methodology and sample sizes on the scorecard.
Two blind spots you must know
- Jump-style C1 ignitions give no near-edge lead time (capability boundary 6): violent launches often happen in one step, faster than the warning layer.
- Slow stair-step grinds may never trigger ignition (capability boundary 3): a coin that climbs in steps without ever printing abnormal volume can fail both tracks forever. The checkup report's ignition section flags this blind spot.
Ignition is the loudest act of the play and the one with the stalest information. Use it as a confirmed fact, not as a starting gun.