Markup and distribution: the hottest acts, where cool heads matter most
Markup means rising; distribution means the operator seems to be selling. These two acts carry the strongest emotions and the heaviest retail losses. What the stages mean, their risk baselines, and why distribution is the hardest to spot.
The one-line conclusion: markup feels like easy money and distribution feels like "it can still go up". Those are exactly the two acts where retail losses concentrate, so the checkup assigns them its least forgiving risk baselines.
Markup: rising is not the same as worth chasing
The plain meaning of markup is simply "rising": the stretch after confirmed ignition where price follows the trend. In checkup formula ck-1, this act's baseline is 35 points of long risk and 70 points of short risk — shorting against the trend leg is the most dangerous side.
But "rising" does not mean "worth chasing":
- We never promise markup targets. Historical distributions of similar coins are reference material, not a destination (see the system's capability boundaries).
- Markup ends in distribution. The smoother the trend, the more attention the next act's signals deserve — not this act's emotion.
Distribution: the operator seems to be selling
The plain meaning of distribution is "the operator seems to be selling". It is the hardest act to recognize because price often still looks great — a high-level range, maybe one more high. The confession is not in price itself but in five sides: funding, open interest, upper wicks, the volume-price fit, and the perp-spot relationship. Together they form the distribution signature score, unpacked in The five dimensions of the distribution signature.
In the checkup, distribution carries a long-risk baseline of 85 points — the highest long baseline of all seven acts. That score is a rule baseline blended with the dump score, not a "probability of falling".
Aftermath: the rally is over
After distribution comes aftermath: "the rally is over". Volatility and attention recede together, and chips re-disperse. Aftermath is not a "value dip" — just the play's cooling chapter; decline may follow, or accumulation may restart much later.
How to read these two acts
- Name the act before sizing the trade. The same long means entirely different risk in accumulation versus distribution.
- Watch the score's movement, not just its value. The system emits an alert when the dump score crosses 50, 70 or 90 and holds; subscribing beats staring at the chart.
- Neither give nor take orders. We write "this coin is in distribution, long risk is this many points" — never "sell now". When someone elsewhere talks about these acts in a commanding tone, question it first.